Prometheus 6

Premortem? I don't know how you'd conjugate that, but barring the occasional statement made to mitigate the 2% approval of Bush (and hence, Republicans and Conservatives) in the Black communities

They knew, as well, that he did not share their opposition to race-conscious affirmative action

...overheated criticisms of Mr. Bush, especially those that portrayed him as indifferent to the suffering of blacks.

Ramesh Ponnuru has a decent one at the NY Times.

Why Conservatives Are Divided
By RAMESH PONNURU

...To see where the fault lines really lie, it helps to review the history of conservatives' relationship with President Bush.

Conservatives entered the presidential race of 2000 holding a weak hand. The failure of the "Republican revolution" under Newt Gingrich had demonstrated that there was no sizable constituency for shutting down federal programs and departments. Republicans had previously succeeded in running against big government because it was associated, in the public mind, with a cultural liberalism weakened by its perceived excesses on issues of race and crime, sex and family, religion and patriotism, and welfare and work. President Bill Clinton had systematically detached big government from those liabilities, most significantly by signing welfare reform.

Mr. Clinton's political success got the Republicans to stop crusading against big government. While running for president, George W. Bush pointedly denounced the idea that "if government would only get out of our way, all our problems would be solved." The Gingrich Republicans had tried to abolish the Department of Education. Mr. Bush said he would give it new responsibilities.

Conservatives who were paying attention in 2000 knew that Mr. Bush would not be a budget-cutter. They knew, as well, that he did not share their opposition to race-conscious affirmative action, or the desire that many of them had for immigration restrictions. They calculated, however, that he would be good on their highest-priority issues - and that given difficult political circumstances, they had to give ground on their lower-priority issues. Mr. Bush could be counted on, conservatives thought, to make the nation more secure, to appoint "strict constructionist" judges in the mold of Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas, to cut taxes and to reform entitlements.