Prometheus 6

David Frum of the National Review

In the past, Republicans could win elections despite their unpopularity among ethnic minorities. But with the huge surge of immigration since 1980 - and especially since 2000 - the voting map of the United States has been redrawn in ways inherently deeply unfavorable to the GOP.

Think about that. Think about why it will be "inherently deeply unfavorable to the GOP." That unpopularity wasn't, and isn't, a problem in their mind because it was a major plank in their campaign platform.

And, increasingly, the Republican Party has become a covert exercise in identity politics for white men.

Anyway Frum is mad at Dubya. He says white people will be outnumbered in the future and it's all George W. Bush's fault.

If Republicans face an inhospitable future after 2008, we will hear much of the dreadful legacy of George W. Bush on social issues, the war, the environment, etc. But Greenberg's own work makes clear that these issues matter relatively little.

(Only 28% of young voters would respond positively to an anti-religious-right message, for example: see page 11.)

No, the legacy that will damage his party is the legacy of immigration non-enforcement. This has imported a large new community of people who are both economically struggling (and thus open to Democratic arguments) but who lack deep attachment to the American nation (and who are thus immune to the most potent of Republican appeals) [P6: link added for rhetorical purposes]. It is these voters who will sway elections in future. And thanks to this president's immigration policies, there are going to be a lot more of them than there might otherwise have been.

Let me tell you, I read Yurugu and fully understood its appeal; having figured out a lot via alternate means I never got attached to its explanations. But Frum is making the "fear of genetic annihilation" point look really solid.

Another interesting point, brought out by Digby, is that this poll Frum is spinning didn't include any undocumented folk.

So in this poll we are talking about young legal citizens between the ages of 18-29, the vast, vast majority of whom were born in this country. Most of them have never been to Mexico except on vacation, many of them don't speak Spanish and they have all been educated in American schools and raised on MTV and fast food. In other words, these young people are Americans with all the same attachments to country that all young Americans have. I have no idea how he explains the fact that 78% of young African Americans also loathe Republicans --- perhaps they've never established any attachment to America either. (I don't suppose the fact that Republicans are the party of racists has anything to do with it.)

Frum is just carrying on the long tradition of stupid commentators and Republican shills who constantly point out that Republicans would win in a landslide if only white people voted (although in this case, they don't win decisively among young whites either) as if that's some sort of meaningful metric. I even heard someone break down the poll numbers for Clinton by saying that she wouldn't stand a chance if women couldn't vote. I have never heard anyone note the opposite ---- that if white males couldn't vote, no Republican could ever get elected to any office in the land.

But aside from the racist assumptions about these young Americans, Frum is actually laying the groundwork for the right's attack against any expansion of the safety net. This is one of those recurring themes in American politics.

And Rick Perlstein makes it personal.

I invite Frum, with whom I've had friendly exchanges in the past, to answer me this question: how is your argument different from that of the 1920s nativists, including the Ku Klux Klan, who argued that my Jewish ancestors who became naturalized citizens–as well as Catholics from Eastern Europe—likewise couldn't possibly develop a deep attachment to the American nation.

I don't think there's any way he can answer.

Frum has to have the racism close enough to the surface that his constituency can see it clearly, know what he's talking about...which exposes another problem the Internet causes Republicans.

Stupid constituents.

Frum is writing in TNR...not exactly the sort of periodical you'll find on coffeetables in Jena, know what I'm saying? It targets the movement elites for the most part. Problem is, on the Web anyone can see it, including those folks who would have gotten the word through three or four layers of filtering. Now they have to spell out a lot more. Frum had to just...say it.