Prometheus 6

Just in case, here it is again. Or watch it on CSPAN tonight.

The 12 participants (who were paid $100 each for their time) comprised six Democrats, two independents who leaned Democratic, two Republicans and two pure independents. None of the 12 supported Sen. Barack Obama or Sen. John McCain in the Pennsylvania primary on April 22; seven voted for Sen. Hillary Clinton. One of Hart's principal interests was to learn how those Clinton supporters felt about Obama....

Charles Fasano, a 56-year-old undertaker, identified himself as "a Democrat . . . thinking more about McCain, just because I don't trust Osama -- I mean Obama. It's only one letter difference. His middle name's Hussein. He comes from a Muslim family. It's not right, I can't see it. I just fear for America if he comes in." Later in the discussion Fasano predicted race riots in America if Obama is elected. These were classic examples of sentiments that no poll would ever uncover, but came bubbling up freely in this focus group.

Hearts, Not Minds
Polls Tell Them What Voters Think, But Moderators Say the Focus Group Reveals How Emotion Trumps Analysis
By Robert G. Kaiser
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, June 30, 2008; C01

What if the 2008 presidential election were decided by voters acting not on their political judgments or analyses of the candidates, but on their emotions? In the view of some experts, this is a trick question -- of course the election will be decided emotionally. Elections always are.

"Campaigns are about emotions and values more than about information," says John Russonello, a partner in a research and communications firm who loves to discover the feelings and visceral reactions that can move voters.

Russonello does this with focus groups, now a ubiquitous tool in American politics and business. First used in the middle of the 20th century, the focus group -- typically a gathering of up to a dozen people chosen for particular demographic and political characteristics -- has become big business. In national and statewide political campaigns, they are as common as bumper stickers but a lot less visible. Usually focus groups are staged for small audiences -- representatives of the people paying for them. Tonight the public has an unusual opportunity to watch an entire two-hour focus group session on C-SPAN at 8 p.m. More about that in a moment.

Polls, the lifeblood of American politics, can also tell us what people think -- which candidate they favor, how much they approve of a president, whether they believe the war in Iraq was worth fighting. But polls are science, exploiting the mathematical laws of random samples to explain what "everyone" thinks by asking the right 1,200 or so Americans the same questions. Focus groups, by contrast, are art. Their success depends on the skills of the person leading the discussion. A talented focus-grouper tries to expose the emotional juice that can both explain and alter poll results.