There never was and there never will be a "Bradley Effect". Citing covert white racism as the principal reason for the Republican George Deukmejian's defeat of the Democrat Tom Bradley is simply wrong. Attributing Bradley's loss solely to white voters not casting their ballots for him because he was black is understandable because it allows us to construct a narrative that neatly fits into our preconceptions and experiences. This story, however, lures us away from searching for any other reasons that might better explain Bradley's defeat.
The truth is that if the Bradley campaign and the California State Democratic Party had turned out just one-third more of the state's registered and eligible black voters then Bradley would have won the election. Yes, some white voters in California changed their minds or lied about voting for a black candidate, but that should not excuse the failure of the Bradley campaign and the state Democratic Party to reach out to black voters and mount a serious GOTV effort in predominantly black neighborhoods in the state.
In Los Angeles County and in the City of Los Angeles alone, where Bradley had served four terms as the city’s mayor, tens of thousands of black voters and blacks eligible to vote did not go to the polls to vote. Bradley and his advisors either never saw a need to organize and mobilize black voters or they were afraid to do so for fear of alienating whites. If the latter case is true, then it might be more appropriate to label this behavior as the real Bradley Effect.
In the wake of Bradley’s loss one enterprising reporter asked a Bradley aide if the campaign could have done more to reach out to minority voters. The aide cited a television ad the campaign ran featuring Bradley in a suit standing in a grove of redwood trees talking about “diversity” as an example of the campaign’s effort to reach out to minority voters!
The fact is that Bradley simply failed to generate as much enthusiasm as might have been expected among a large swath of the black electorate in the city and the county of Los Angeles and the State of California. Many blacks may not have voted because they did not believe that Bradley would win but many others may have felt that Bradley and his campaign either took their support for granted or chose to ignore their concerns.
Let's not forget too, for example, that Bradley had managed in the 1950s to become a lieutenant in the LAPD, which was one of the most brutal and notoriously racist police departments in the country. A black man who attained an officer’s rank in the LAPD was probably not a black man who openly challenged the department or directly confronted a political system that oppressed blacks and other minorities. In addition, the Bradley campaign probably put too much stock in the advice of too many arm-chair generals in the black community rather than organizing elements of the black electorate to walk the streets and knock on doors. Bradley’s ascension to the governor’s office might have met the legitimate aspirational concerns of the black bourgeoisie but not the needs of a broader swath of the black electorate.
If a larger percentage of black voters statewide had turned out to vote, the specter of the Bradley Effect would never have been raised despite the fact that some white voters misled pollsters as to their intentions. The Bradley Effect has now entered popular lore as a short hand way of explaining why black candidates may not do as well on election day as the polls indicated they would do. The sad reality is that covert racism was only one of several factors in Bradley’s loss and it would have been a non-factor if the Bradley campaign had done more to reach out to California’s black electorate.
Thorough, and well-researched article
I kind of get this, because we want the truth about what occurred in that election. I commend you for all of your efforts in seeking truth. White voters are running around saying that the effect has been debunked. I tell white voters that the "Bradley/Wilder" effect, (calm down ptcruiser) won't be debunked until on or after Nov. 5, so this is all academic. African Americans are not going to be to blame this cycle. African Americans are between 95-100% according to Chuck Todd at NBC. I'm seeing a repeat of history, and I hope I'm wrong, where the the victim (this time Sarah Palin) gets a lion share of the undecided vote, to win by a nose on Tuesday. Last time it was Hillary Clinton. This thing is definitely high-stakes. The latest Gallup poll has it at 2 points, with Obama getting the edge. Far, far to close for comfort.
I'm seeing a repeat of
Please explain the above. Thank you.
Yeah, I'd like some clarity
Yeah, I'd like some clarity on that too.
I think there are enough
I think there are enough people that will feel sorry for Sarah Palin for the way she's been treated, who when asked say they are voting for Obama, but when they enter the voting booth they'll vote for McCain/Palin. Remember, people felt sorry for Hillary Clinton, and claimed that at the end she was a fighter for the working class and all that nonsense. The effect is that Sarah Palin will be deemed a victim. The undecided voters want to vote for McCain/Palin, they know that McCain is running a bad campaign, and that also make them feel sorry for Palin. You ever notice how the undecided number is always always enough, if not slightly more than the number of points that McCain is trailing by? Undecideds have never broken Obama's way. Why else would one hide their vote as undecided, if not for reasons of covert racism?
My Dirty Secret
I was 18 and the Bradley election was the first I could vote in. I intended to vote but didn't understand that you could only vote at your designated polling place. I was living in Richmond Ca. but I was over in the San Francisco State Dorm ( no comment on why I was there, let's just say it wasn't academic ) I saw the the voting stations in the lobby and thought I could come back downstairs right before closing and cast my vote ( IGNORANCE ) when I asked for my ballot the lady looked at me strangely and told me I had a specific place to vote near my residence.
I was disapointed but didn't trip because the polls were saying it was a lock, until I saw how closely Bradley lost and I have felt a share of personal responsibility for his lost since. The up shot is I have been fanatical about making sure I vote and have not missed a vote since then.
I say this because I don't believe in the Bradley Effect, I believe many black people in Caliornia talked about support but didn't vote period, if the smallest percentage had voted there never would be a discussion about the so called Bradley effect. Which just provides cover for Republicans to steal elections
Sorry, but I think there is
Sorry, but I think there is SOME effect that compels whites to say one thing in the polls and do another in the booth.
America hasn’t progressed
America hasn’t progressed that far yet.
I'm not saying there aren't
I'm not saying there aren't folks who will vote against a Black candidate simply because he or she is Black. I'm saying they'll make up some other reason to explain it...and the polls will be correct.
The Minority Report...
...I would agree that no one will truly know until the election is over, but my gut feeling is that Obama will win by more than predicted.
I think that those of the ‘Paler Nation’, (…As Stephen L. Carter likes to phrase it!) that travel in like circles that advocate Obama’s presidency have no problem doing so, but I think you also have a lot of other folks who are afraid of ruining alliances, but have enough sense to know that they don’t want to commit themselves to madness to do the whole ‘George Bush – The Re-Mix’ deal.
(...They will vote for Obama, to be sure, but tell their friends they voted for McCain to deflect the heat.)
A long story told short, I was in the town of Rising Sun, Maryland a week or so back for the first time.
(…According to U.S. Census, it has a population of a little over 1700 and roughly a little over a dozen folk who claim themselves to be from the ‘Darker Nation’. And, for what it’s worth, they’re outnumbered by Hispanics 2-1!)
It was stunning to see the number of homes with almost billboard size McCain / Palin yard signs in their front yards.
(What little we saw of promotion for Obama was primarily confined to bumper stickers. But then too, I think that’s been the consistent trend in areas like in the Reston, Herndon and Sterling areas of Northern Virginia as well.)
But I genuinely wondered how any Obama supporter in that area (…If there are truly any there!) has that conversation with their friends and neighbors as to why he would be a better candidate than McCain.
Now I’ve had actual candidates come to my home in person to solicit my vote on more than one occasion. I actually find it admirable. Some I haven’t voted for but I’ve admired their moxy none the less.
But I am leery as all get out of phone pollsters. I purposely don’t give out info, because I have genuine concern my neighborhood will be suddenly become flooded with McCain snipe signs.
When Obama recites the line about republicans coming up to him and whispering that he has their support, I think there’s a lot more to that than a lot of people realize.
Unlike John Kerry, Obama has spent considerably more time trying to articulate his plans for change as opposed to chattering redundantly on as to how he’s not George Bush.
And, to raise the specter of Richard Nixon slightly, this cross-section of the voting populace that will help put him over the top, I think, will come to be known ironically as:
‘The Silent Minority’
Debunking the 'Bradley Effect'
...Slated to run in this Sunday's Washington Post print edition:
Enough. This urban legend that holds that white voters may be telling pollsters they're voting for Obama while they're secretly harboring racial reservations about him deserves to be banished from our political conversation. As a senior strategist and day-to-day tactician in Deukmejian's 1982 campaign, I'm happy to send it packing once and for all....
Whether or not white voters
Whether or not white voters make reasons is not important. It's all part of the same "effect" to me. Now, many of my friends tell me that I'm being negative about Obama's chances, this Bradley Effect thing, and that I should give America the benefit of the doubt considering the "progress" American has made over the years. But if I'm being negative then so be it (though I think it's realism). I don't think America has progressed to the point where I could give America the benefit of the doubt enough to distinguish between whites who won't vote for Obama for no other reason than his race and those who use - or need - excuses not to vote for him or any Black candidate. And until I'm proven wrong I can't believe otherwise.
True, there are republicans who are secretly voting for Obama. But, in my opion, there are a lot more white Dems voting for Nader, Barr, McCain, or some other white candidate because they are simply not ready for a Black candidate in the Oval Office.
The Race Is Over
One of the reasons that Barack Obama will be elected POTUS on Tuesday is because his campaign has avoided the actual Bradley Effect, i.e., the failure to contact, motivate and organize folks at the ground level. This race is over and has been over for quite some time although nobody realized it. Somebody should call the Coast Guard because McCain has been dead in the water for the past 30 days, if not longer.
It's Over?
Damn, thats a lot to conclude considering the history of Black candidates. True, McCain has had a "failure to contact, motivate and organize folks at the ground level", and Obama is thrashing him in the polls. In all honesty Obama has re-writen the book on how to run a campaign. But let us not get ahead of ourselves and get presumptuous. American still has to have its official say in the matter. And I wouldn't put too much stock in the polls. I suspect the count will much closer than we think or what the current polls are suggesting. Considering all the disappointments we've endured in this nation I think our optimism should be tempered with mindful caution.
Just like there are millions of Blacks (who never thought there votes counted) voting for the first time (many in their 50's and 60's), there will be millions of whites, who do not like the idea of a Black man in the Oval Office, that have never voted for the same reason but will be just as motivated to vote for the fist time. That aspect will never show up in the polls but it is one we should keep in mind. First-time Black voters will not be the only motivated voters this year. And don't think they will all be motivated for Obama.
Whether or not white voters
It's not.
The effect is "people lying to pollsters about voting for Black candidates due to race." It's NOT "people lying to pollsters about the reason they will vote against Black candidates."
My point is, whatever reason they give, they admit to voting against Obama. They are not lying about that, so the need to write off a percentage of his support simply isn't there.
"In times of difficulty we
"In times of difficulty we should not lose sight of our achievements but must pluck up our courage and see the bright future ahead."
Mao Zedong's admonition to the Red Army during the Long March.
One thing
One thing about the so-called "Bradley Effect" that we need to recognize is that whites lying on exit polls is in part a sign of lingering racism but is also a sign of racism's retreat. That is, one can chart a straight line from "I ain't votin for no Cullit" to "Yes, of course I voted for Bradley (fingers crossed behind my back)" to "I'm voting for Obama BECAUSE he represents a force for change in this country." In other words, the polls being wrong in 1982 is a good sign for us today.
The real Bradley Effect as
The real Bradley Effect as opposed to the alleged Bradley Effect was the failure of the Bradley campaign to connect with a broader segment of the black electorate and motivate them to turn out to vote for Bradley. The Obama campaign has not made that mistake.
‘The Silent Minority Speaks’
"......I would agree that no one will truly know until the election is over, but my gut feeling is that Obama will win by more than predicted."
(...It just made too much sense!)
Otherwise, there'd be nothing more to talk about beyond the root causes of madness and signs of 'The Apocalypse!'
Having predicted a lose for
Having predicted a lose for Obama I must admit that I have never been so happy to be proven wrong as I am now. Never in a million years did would I have thought that America would look past its racism and vote in a Black President. Perhaps America was more “ready” than I thought. I still fear for his life though. In any event I am happy – no, PROUD - to have been utterly wrong in my predictions. Outside of fearing for his life I fear that people – Black and white – will wrongly conclude that racism is dead.
I still fear for his life
Let the Secret Service handle that. Seriously.
We know it's not. However, we (collectively) need to develop a sense of proportion. This campaign has given us the information we need to properly scale the problem.
Prior to Obama's win I found
Prior to Obama's win I found that far too many black folk, in my opinion, were pessimistic about his chances. I always thought that he would win the election if he won the nomination. More than a month ago I began telling friends (not all black) and family that the race was all but over. I'm glad that Obama won but I wasn't surprised at all. The numbers and the prevailing zeitgeist always favored him. In addition, he and his people understood how to run a two-tier campaign at the national level. Democrats at the local level have always used this approach to win elections. It was only at the national level, i.e., Democrats in Washington, D.C., that this knowledge seems to have been misplaced and forgotten.
"In times of difficulty we should not lose sight of our achievements but must pluck up our courage and see the bright future ahead."
Mao Zedong's admonition to the Red Army during the Long March.
". . . I found that far too
". . . I found that far too many black folk, in my opinion, were pessimistic about his chances."
I'm sure you can understand why many of us were pessimistic about his chances. Given the history how could there not be. As I said I am proud to have been wrong. And I must admit even at this very moment I'm still shocked that he won. He EARNED everything he needed to win, especially the main thing I didn't think he'd get - a good portion of the white vote. Yeah, I get Mao Zedong's admonition. But I, like many of the other Blacks who were pessimistic about his chances, am a pragmatist. I respect the teachings of empirical evidence. Here in Chicago I was in line to vote an hour before polls opened and there was still a line wrapping around the school (polls opened at 6 am). And from the conversations I was having with others they were just as pessimistic, but hopeful, as I.
Perhaps America has made more progress than I've long thought, and I'll be the first to say that I was wrong, but am indeed encouraged and even more proud to be an American. But I fear that there are too many people, of all races, poised to say that America has no race problem now that there will be a Black President. Just this morning on C-SPAN Horace Cooper of Project 21, a Black man, stated that the Black community needed to come up with reasons for the disparities in poverty, education, and employment in our neighborhoods, as if race now has and has had nothing to do with it.
Perhaps America has made
I think that our differing views prior to and after the election results from the fact that I never linked Obama's chances with racial progress or a diminution in feelings of racial antipathy among whites toward blacks. I tended to look at Obama as a product that was being mass marketed to consumers who have been persuaded and trained to accept that they only have two choices in a presidential election: a Democrat or a Republican. Once Obama became the leading brand of the Democrats then, in my opinion, it would not have been too difficult to convince voters to support his election as president.
People like Horace Cooper are and remain asses. One of the things I tend not to share with black people are their aspirational concerns and wishes built around individual accomplishments. I understand and appreciate these feelings but I don't share them. A black hockey player with the skills and talents of Wayne Gretzsky is not going to make me a hockey fan no matter how many goals he scores.
I'm glad that Obama won because I think he and his administration can do some good. I don't need to tell my sons and daughter that his election proves they can do anything in America. It isn't true although I will support (and pay for) whatever projects that engage their passions.