If the United States does not oppose a Turkish invasion it will face a more chaotic situation in Iraq and the loss of a long-term relationship with the Iraqi Kurds, who are Washington's best hope for obtaining rights for U.S. bases in the future. If Washington opposes the invasion, it risks further estrangement from Turkey, a state positioned to play a critical strategic role in a region where Iran increasingly challenges the United States for dominance.
Turkey fears Kurdish irredentism coming from an independent Kurdistan. The Iraqi Kurds perceive a Turkish invasion as aimed at controlling oil-rich Kirkuk, thereby denying the Iraqi Kurds an economic base for their independence. Furthermore, Turkish intervention in Iraq would create a terrible precedent for Syrian and Iranian intervention in the Iraqi civil war.
Turkey's Iraq Problem
By Lenore G. Martin
Saturday, September 16, 2006; A21
Although the world is paying more attention to Hezbollah and the Iraq insurgency, there's another guerrilla group that poses a severe threat to the stability of the Middle East.
The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), operating from havens in northern Iraq, has been attacking Turkish security forces in southeastern Anatolia and occasionally civilians elsewhere. Turkey is determined to prevent a repetition of the 1984-99 guerrilla war with the separatist PKK, in which it suffered more than 30,000 deaths. It has mobilized a large force on its Iraqi border and is threatening to invade northern Iraq.
A Turkish invasion would create chaos in that part of Iraq and potentially destabilize the region. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's response -- moving to reinvigorate a tripartite commission made up of the governments of Turkey, Iraq and the United States -- is insufficient. The United States needs to take much firmer action to stop the PKK guerrilla war from undermining its Middle East policy.
