Beating the Bush
MB at Wampum has some observations and some advice. After listing a large fraction of the multiple reasons Dubya's home needs to be repossessed, she notes:
In my lifetime, an incumbent President has had the opportunity to run for reelection nine times. Eisenhower (56), Johnson (64), Nixon (72), Reagan (84) and Clinton (96) won. Johnson (68), Ford (76), Carter (80) and George H.W. Bush (92) lost.
…In each instance in which the incumbent president was not reelected, the primary challenge came from the more extreme wing of his own party. McCarthy and Kennedy attacked from the left, Reagan and Buchanan from the right. If Nader and the Greens had not mounted a challenge from the left in 2000, this post would be discussing the reelection prospects of President Gore.
If there is one unifying political theme of the GWB administration, it has been solicitude to his right flank. The chances that a Republican will enter the primaries and attack Bush from the right approach zero. If Mr. Bush loses without a challenge from his flank, it will be the first time in at least 75 years.
There's also a pretty probably breakdown of the way the electoral votes will go as well as a pairing of the Democratic candidates and the soft spots in their constituencies.
A reality check of this type is always welcome, as is the pointer to Patrica Nielsen Hayden's discussion of how to get at the electoral votes in the swing states. She picked three examples from said discussion, one of which
I've been trying to explain to Black folks for years, which is why, though least applicable to this Presidential campaign, it's the one I chose to swipe.
Meanwhile, if you're not in a swing state you still shouldn't get complacent (unless you're a Bush supporter. If so, relax--you've got it in the bag!). You Middle America types should study Alabama, and draw parallels to your own states' situations. They exist, and paying close attention may well make you want to move (as in relocate) before it's too late&heiilp;but you should move (as in get active) before it's too late. And us high-income producing states can take a page from the Republican's playbook by pointing out that for all our suffering we STILL aren't getting back as much as we give the Feds…and that the only way to fix that is to fix the economy so the Middle Americans aren't so needy.
